Casualties down

Anybody wonder what's going on in the GWOT lately? In case you hadn't noticed (and damn few people have in the hurricane furor this month), the coalition casualty count is down. Way down. Lowest since March. At current pace, September will be only 6th deadliest since we invaded Iraq.

There are lots of reasons for this, I'm sure, not the least of which is that the bad guys have been targeting civilians again instead of our team.

Nonetheless, the recent decline in casualties is remarkable when you consider we are conducting offensive operations in some of the toughest towns along the terrorist infiltration routes into Baghdad, that Al Queda in Iraq has allegedly forged alliances with most of the other insurgent and terrorist factions, that Iran is stirring up trouble in the relatively peaceful south, that terrorist recruits are allegedly pouring over the border, and that Sunnis are reported to be largely dissatisfied with the draft constitution. And this is all occurring as we expect an upward trend in violence prior to the coming constitutional referrendum.

So what does this mean? It means the bad guys have lost their better planners, their knowlegeable bomb builders, and their competent troops. We're fighting the second string, now. And we're doing it with the help of competently trained and led Iraqi forces. We've passed the tipping point.

I think it means we're winning.